The consultant SBS Consulting Maria Osolodchenko clarified for Vedomosti the situation with the change in the production policy of United Company RUSAL (UC RUSAL) in connection with sanctions. How long does RUSAL need to reorient products to the Asian market? Will it be possible to avoid mass reductions? How long will it take to sign new deals from China? Why would China be interested in working with the company?
For a short period, reorientation of production is rather difficult, since this is a long negotiating process. The minimum period is six months, the maximum is difficult to assess.
China is a net exporter of aluminum and has surplus alumino-producing capacities. Two years ago, the problem of surplus and surplus capacity in the Chinese market was very acute, now the situation is somewhat smoothed (aluminum consumption in China is growing faster than production), the country still produces more than it consumes and continues to open new capacities (while closing old ones). In case of successful agreement, for example, by connecting a political resource, the price of supply will be low, which means that the older production capacities of the company may become unprofitable, which again will be spurred by the closure of part of the workshops.
Another thing is that, most likely, RUSAL will help avoid mass reductions. The state can help with the purchase of products in Rosrezerv, but everything will depend on the conditions.