On average, the volume of Russian exports grew by 26% in 2016-2018 and reached a peak volume of $450 billion. Indeed, until 2018 the increase in exports was due to raw materials and non-primary energy goods, but then the situation changed - the growth was ensured by the export of finished goods. Even in the context of the 2020 pandemic, when total exports fell by 21%, this segment showed positive dynamics.
SBS Consulting experts have developed their own methodology for selecting promising products, according to the results of which products from different industries have significant growth potential.
Dynamics of Russian exports
Key findings:- Export growth: Exports grew at an average annual rate of 26% between 2016 and 2018. However, exports declined by 21% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Non-resource non-energy exports (NRE): The volume of NRE grew by an average of 10% annually between 2016 and 2020. In 2020, the NRE reached USD 161 bln.
- Strategic goals: According to the National Project ‘International Cooperation and Export’ and the Russian Presidential Decree, it is planned to increase exports of NRE to USD 250 bln by 2024 and to ensure real growth of non-resource non-energy exports by at least 70% by 2030 compared to the 2020 level.
Structure of Russian exports
Main commodity groups:- Fossil and refined fuels: Accounts for 33% of total exports in 2019.
- Metal products, chemical products, engineering products: Significant shares in the export structure after fuels and defence industry products (total share of over 15%).
- Metal products: The share decreased from 10.2% in 2016 to 8.9% in 2019.
- Chemical industry: The share decreased from 7.8% in 2016 to 6.4% in 2019.
- Russian export share: The share increased from 1.8% to 2.3% between 2016 and 2019, making Russia the 14th largest global exporter.
- Low-value-added processed products: Make the largest share of NRE exports.
Approach to the selection of export commodity groups
Selection methodology:- Selection of commodity groups with high export potential: Growing market demand, export development prospects, potential partners and competitors are analysed.
- Analysis of data for 2015-2019: The volume of Russian exports, export growth rates and world exports are taken into account.
- Product classification: By industry, product type (raw, refined), level of attractiveness and realisation of export potential.
Results of selection of attractive export commodity groups
Matrix of product distribution by export position:- Export volume in 2019: 647 identified product groups.
- Examples of commodities with good export potential:
—Raw commodities: Iron ore, brown coal.
—Medium value-added products: Large-diameter pipes, rapeseed oil.
—High value-added products: Radar equipment, lasers and speciality optics.
Analysis of chemical industry exports: examples
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC):- Export dynamics: PVC exports grew at an average annual rate of 24% from 2015 to 2020
- Main export destinations: Belarus, Turkey, India, Korea, Italy
- Exporters: Main exporters are Sayanskkhimplast, RusVinyl, Kaustik, BSC
- Export dynamics: The export volume grew at an average annual rate of 7% from 2015 to 2020
- Main export destinations: Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine
- Exporters: The main exporters are Kazanorgsintez, Biaxplen, Polyplastic, DKC
- Export dynamics: Lithium hydroxide exports grew at an average annual rate of 31% from 2015 to 2020
- Main export destinations: Belgium, Korea, India
- Exporters: Main exporters - Halmek, CMP
Conclusion
The research emphasises the significant potential of Russian exports, especially in the non-resource non-energy sector. To achieve strategic goals, it is necessary to strengthen support for export-oriented enterprises, improve logistics and regulatory infrastructure, and actively promote Russian products on international markets. The main areas of development include increasing the share of high-value-added products, developing new markets and improving the competitiveness of Russian commodities.
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