Major global trends: what awaits us by 2050

he world is changing faster than ever before, and these changes encompass all aspects of our lives. What trends will shape developments in the coming decades? The answers to this question have been provided by leading consulting groups, institutions and rbanizatio organisations, which have analysed and highlighted key global trends.

These trends either relate to several PESTE factors at once or create new trends in related areas. This effect can be compared to the yin-yang principle, where one trend gives rise to another, sometimes opposite in nature, but closely related to it.

Understanding key global trends enables consultants, managers and CEOs to create successful long-term business development strategies and adapt to the inevitable challenges of the future in advance.

The study covers the key global trends that will impact the world economy, society, technology, and the environment through 2050. It features forecasts from leading consulting groups and organisations, providing insight into how the world will change over the coming decades. Understanding key global trends is becoming an integral part of the work of consultants, managers and business leaders, enabling them to develop successful long-term strategies. By rbanizatio trends in time, businesses can adapt in advance to the inevitable challenges of the future and increase their resilience and competitiveness in the market.

The study is rbanizat around five main areas – political (P), economic €, social (S), technological (T) and environmental € factors (PESTE-analysis). In each of the areas, the main trends are highlighted, which, according to the authors, will determine the world development until the middle of the XXI century.

1. Global economy and markets

By 2050, the world economy will have changed dramatically, with three of the top five economies representing emerging markets. Both China and India are already among the world’s top 5 economies, and projections show that Indonesia and possibly Brazil will join them. This development signals a shift in global economic leadership to dynamic emerging economies.

Global supply chains are increasingly orientated towards domestic production. Recent years have seen a decline in import dependency, while local production is growing faster than international trade. This all points to a trend towards rbanization of production and reduced dependence on global supply.

2. Population growth and its consequences

By 2050, the world population will reach 9.7 billion, significantly increasing the demand for food and water. Most of the population growth is expected to occur in Tropical Africa, Central and South Asia, while 61 countries will experience population declines. By 2040, all available freshwater will be used in economic processes.

Population growth will be followed by its further ageing. Improvements in medicine and quality of life help to prolong life, but mortality is increasingly dominated by ‘age-related’ diseases. Although age-adjusted mortality rates are declining due to medical advances, the total number of people suffering from these diseases continues to rise due to population ageing. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will be another major challenge for the healthcare system. To reduce the risks associated with AMR, two key areas should be focused on: social regulation and medical development.

3. Environmental challenges

By 2050, the level of rbanization in the world will continue to rise, increasing the risks of COVID-19-like global epidemics. The main factors contributing to the emergence and spread of epidemics include population density, healthcare accessibility, economic security of the population, and others.

Without a radical transition to green energy, by 2050 fossil energy sources will still dominate the global energy mix, accounting for the biggest share of consumption. This will lead to high greenhouse gas emissions and significant climate change. Even under the most optimistic rbanizationon scenarios, the planet’s average temperature will continue to rise and biodiversity will decline by a significant proportion due to land use change, deforestation, construction and pollution.

The loss of biodiversity and forests will have serious economic consequences. Due to climate change, large numbers of people may become climate migrants, with projections in the tens or even hundreds of millions. Hotspots of climate migration could emerge within a short time, mainly from arid regions and areas flooded due to sea level rise.

With population growth, climate change and changing economic leaders, international tensions will increase. New economic and military alliances will emerge, and existing alliances will become more powerful. According to the US National Intelligence Estimate, conflicts caused by climate change, economic inequality and political rbanization are expected to increase by 2035.

Thus, a key challenge is to transform the economy to meet the major challenges of the future. The main drivers of this transformation are rbanizationon and the adoption of new technologies.

4. Technological trends

The world, especially countries in Asia and the US, is becoming increasingly high-tech. Since 2005, the technology sector has significantly increased its share of the top 10 largest companies by rbanizationo. On average, 75% of these companies are located in the US and provide services to a wide audience.

There are key trends in the structure of the top 10 companies. Technology companies, such as Microsoft, focus on developing proprietary software. The financial sector is predominantly represented by banks, including Citigroup and Bank of America, and investment company Berkshire Hathaway. The energy sector has significantly decreased its share, and the only oil and gas company in the ranking since 2020 has been Saudi Aramco.

Over the last 11 years, the venture capital market has increased 7.3 times, which is due to the active growth of investments in rbanizationo. One of the signs of the growing technologicalisation of the world is the increased demand for advanced communications – both the number of Internet users in the world and their share of the world’s population will grow.

Demand for rare earth metals (REMs) will only increase as they play a key role in rbanizationon and the development of renewable energy. REMs are essential for the production of permanent magnets, which are used in electric motors, turbines, rechargeable batteries and autocatalysts to clean exhaust gases. They are also used in luminophores, speciality alloys, optics and ceramics. The main rare earth metal used for magnets is neodymium.

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to boom and its market is predicted to grow at a CAGR of 39% by 2030 from 2021. In the coming years, AI will perform tasks in various fields more efficiently and cheaper than humans. However, with the increasing use of AI, the number of incidents is also increasing, which will lead to stricter regulation of this field.

The demand for cloud services is growing, especially in the B2B segment. They are used for digital product development, data storage, provisioning computing power, supporting teamwork, machine learning, and the Internet of Things. Cloud computing offers low capital expenditure, flexibility in scaling, and risk transfer to the service provider.

The technological development of medicine continues as part of the overall technological development of society. Internet medicine improves access to healthcare and reduces the workload of hospitals. Active implementation of AI opens up new opportunities for prognosis, analytics and treatment. The biotechnology market, in turn, will almost triple in size by the end of the decade. The main drivers of this growth are the increasing incidence of diseases and genetic disorders, as well as the development of AI technologies and data analysis, which significantly reduces the time to perform certain steps.

The widespread use of quantum technologies will significantly change many areas of society. These technologies are based on physical laws that go beyond classical Newtonian mechanics, such as the superposition principle, which allows qubits to be in several states simultaneously. The main areas of development of quantum technologies include quantum communications, quantum sensors and quantum computing.

5. Social and behavioural change

Economics is moving from the conventional neoclassical model, based on rational behaviour and optimal resource allocation, to behavioural economics, which takes into account real behavioural patterns and cognitive distortions. Nowadays, behavioural economics is becoming more and more relevant, offering a more accurate understanding of human behaviour and its impact on economic processes. In the future, its practices are expected to be adopted on a large scale in various fields, which will enable more effective problem solving and adaptation to changes in consumer and market behaviour

Global trends show significant transformations in economics, technology, and the environment. The growing influence of emerging markets and the shift to domestic production are changing global economic centres. Demographic change, ageing populations and population growth require adaptations in health care and resourcing. Technological development, including AI and quantum computing, is bringing changes in various areas, while high levels of rbanization and environmental challenges require new solutions. All these changes emphasise the need to adapt to new realities and to use technology effectively.