The SBS Consulting team prepared its monetary policy proposals back in 2021. Unfortunately, they were not implemented. Nevertheless, some of the recommendations are still relevant. Therefore, it is worth looking at them not from the point of view of implementing anti-crisis measures, but from the point of view of shaping monetary policy for the long term.
From 2013 to 2020, Russia's foreign exchange reserves significantly exceeded the required level. According to the Reddy criterion, the optimal amount of reserves in 2020 should be lower by 65.5% compared to the actual amount. Excess reserves can be used to stimulate monetary policy and support key sectors of the economy. Compared to the world's largest economies, Russia had the lowest money supply to GDP ratio in 2020.
However, one of the key problems is that even if reserves are available, their effective utilisation is complicated by the weak role of the banking sector in financing the economy. Despite the cut in the key rate, investment in fixed capital continues to decline, indicating that the role of banks in business development and improving the investment climate is insufficient.
The problem is that the banking system, which could become a driver of economic growth, does not fulfil its function fully under the current conditions. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which could become the driving force of economic growth, are practically deprived of access to credit resources. This calls into question the effectiveness of monetary policy. SMEs have almost no access to loans, which significantly hinders their development. SME loan volumes not only grew slower than those of large businesses, but also failed to catch up with inflation, which aggravated financial difficulties for these enterprises.
We have examined how excessive gold and foreign exchange reserves and the weak role of the banking sector are constraining Russia's economic development. These problems require a review of monetary policy and the introduction of new solutions that can provide a boost to growth.
These measures represent a logical follow-up to the previously discussed problems and may become the basis for a new economic policy aimed at improving the investment climate, supporting business and efficient use of the country's financial resources.
From 2013 to 2020, Russia's foreign exchange reserves significantly exceeded the required level. According to the Reddy criterion, the optimal amount of reserves in 2020 should be lower by 65.5% compared to the actual amount. Excess reserves can be used to stimulate monetary policy and support key sectors of the economy. Compared to the world's largest economies, Russia had the lowest money supply to GDP ratio in 2020.
However, one of the key problems is that even if reserves are available, their effective utilisation is complicated by the weak role of the banking sector in financing the economy. Despite the cut in the key rate, investment in fixed capital continues to decline, indicating that the role of banks in business development and improving the investment climate is insufficient.
The problem is that the banking system, which could become a driver of economic growth, does not fulfil its function fully under the current conditions. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which could become the driving force of economic growth, are practically deprived of access to credit resources. This calls into question the effectiveness of monetary policy. SMEs have almost no access to loans, which significantly hinders their development. SME loan volumes not only grew slower than those of large businesses, but also failed to catch up with inflation, which aggravated financial difficulties for these enterprises.
We have examined how excessive gold and foreign exchange reserves and the weak role of the banking sector are constraining Russia's economic development. These problems require a review of monetary policy and the introduction of new solutions that can provide a boost to growth.
- Facilitation of access to finance: Allow businesses to use contractual claims as collateral for lending, which will improve access to funds for SMEs.
- Establishment of investment and industrial banks: Introduce new banking categories with a focus on aggressive lending to key industries while limiting household deposit-taking.
- Repatriation of foreign exchange reserves: Use reserves to support exports and create sustainable demand for Russian products.
These measures represent a logical follow-up to the previously discussed problems and may become the basis for a new economic policy aimed at improving the investment climate, supporting business and efficient use of the country's financial resources.
December, 2025
SME+: the difficult path of growing up
"SME+: the difficult path of growing up" is an annual study dedicated to companies in the SME+ sector. The first study was conducted in 2023 and published in January 2024 by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI). SBS continues to conduct research in this area as part of its business development support practice.
October, 2025
Models for technological developments financing in the field of national security
In international practice, the development of technologies in the field of national security and defense is financed both by government programs and by private investors, including the largest corporations.