Russian economic growth: forecast estimates

1. Growth of more than 4% is real.

The years 2023-2024 were a period of unexpected and rapid growth of the Russian economy, moreover, in the face of severe economic sanctions, rising costs, and restructuring of logistics flows. Regardless of the sources and reasons for the growth, 2023-2024 confirmed that the Russian economy can grow by more than 4% per year. In 2021, the growth was even greater, but then there was a recovery from covid. Previously, we grew by more than 4% only in 2012 and in the 2000s.

2. Economy shutdown.

Today, against the background of the Bank of Russia's still high key rate, the economy is slowing down, including due to the depletion of capacity reserves and growth in defense industry-oriented sectors.

3. The investment trap.

The Russian economy remains trapped in low investment, and its good year-on-year growth rates should not deceive. However, this has reduced the negative effects of a high key interest rate: when loans are taken out only for working capital, and investments are made mainly from own funds, the impact of monetary policy on them decreases.

4. Strategies without resources.

The strategies being adopted and the package of national technological leadership projects, despite all the bright and large numbers, are not provided with budget expansion. Fiscal policy and spending policy in general remain largely the same, meaning there is no need to wait for a new fiscal impulse in terms of expanding government spending on the economy. Moreover, even cost reductions can be expected in expenditure areas that are "linked to income."

5. Bottom line: slow growth.

Even without a detailed formal calculation model, we can say that GDP growth in the next 1-2 years will be in the range of 1.5-2.5% per year. A critical recession would be unacceptable for the state, as there are neither resources nor willingness to change economic policy to maintain high rates.